Customs brokers, trade lawyers, and corporate executives are preparing for an imminent Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of the expansive global tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. There is a possibility of a substantial battle to reclaim up to $150 billion in refunds from the U.S. government for duties already paid by importers if the court rules against Trump.
Recent indications suggest that the Supreme Court may strike down the tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. During the November hearings, both conservative and liberal justices expressed doubts about the president’s authority to levy such duties under this law.
While the court is set to announce its rulings on Friday, the specific cases to be addressed have not been disclosed as of yet. Companies are bracing for potential challenges in seeking refunds even if the tariffs are invalidated, as the government may not readily return the money. Jim Estill, the CEO of Danby Appliances, highlighted concerns about the refund process, especially if Home Depot and its customers lay claim to a share of the $7 million that Danby hopes to retrieve.
Trump’s utilization of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs is unprecedented, having amassed an estimated $133.5 billion in collections between February and December 2025. The total collection amount is projected to approach $150 billion based on the average daily rates during late 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in the Supreme Court upholding Trump’s tariffs, while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer mentioned the potential implementation of new tariffs under different legal frameworks to compensate for any lost revenues.
Companies are eagerly anticipating potential refunds, although there is skepticism regarding the likelihood of receiving them. The refund process is contingent on the Supreme Court’s guidance or possible referral to a lower court for resolution. Importers face challenges as deadlines for corrections have passed for certain imports affected by the tariffs.
Some companies, like Costco and Bumble Bee Foods, have taken preemptive legal action to safeguard their refund rights. However, doubts persist among CEOs like Jay Foreman, who anticipates delays or obfuscation in refund payments by the Trump administration. Trade experts recommend meticulous record-keeping and prompt action to enhance the chances of securing refunds efficiently.
A recent technical adjustment by CBP signaling the shift to electronic distribution for tariff refunds has raised hopes for a streamlined process. While uncertainties remain, importers are cautiously optimistic about the prospects of a structured refund mechanism post a Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs.