The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027 and could potentially become the most potent occurrence to date, heightening the likelihood of severe weather events in the upcoming year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. During a news briefing in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned that if the current trend persists, this El Niño could surpass all previous records in the past four decades.
The United Nations weather agency indicated a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by notably warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This marks the first instance of such a high level of confidence in the forecasts as stated by the WMO.
An intense El Niño can have a substantial impact on global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather occurrences such as typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized that the planet is experiencing unprecedented warming waters due to the magnified El Niño effect.
El Niño, characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific resulting from weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, causing severe weather fluctuations including heavy rains and droughts across Latin America.
This year’s El Niño has already affected agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates the peak of this phenomenon later this year, with its repercussions extending into 2027 and leaving behind elevated global temperatures.
Saulo highlighted the WMO’s enhanced readiness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of the upcoming impacts. She stressed the organization’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and humanitarian agencies to provide essential climate information for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.