Canada’s economy showed no growth in November, with services expanding while goods-producing sectors struggled, according to recent data. The country’s gross domestic product remained unchanged from the previous month, following a 0.3% contraction in October, as reported by Statistics Canada. Analysts had predicted a slight growth of 0.1% for November, but the actual figures did not meet expectations.
The impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel, automotive, lumber, and aluminum was evident in the sluggish performance of these industries, affecting overall output. Although the tariff effects were mainly confined to these sectors, a Bank of Canada survey revealed subdued business sentiment, decreased investments, and anticipated job cuts.
Preliminary estimates suggest a marginal 0.1% growth in December, but the final figures may be subject to revision, warned Statistics Canada. This lackluster performance in November points to a 0.5% annualized deceleration in fourth-quarter growth, falling short of the Bank of Canada’s projection of no growth in the final quarter, based on industry-specific GDP data. A continued decline in two consecutive quarters would classify as a technical recession.
Canada’s full-year growth for 2025 is anticipated to reach 1.3%, according to StatsCan. The final reported quarterly GDP figures, based on income and expenditure, may vary from the estimates derived from industry-specific GDP calculations.
The growth in November was primarily led by the services sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the economy. Retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and educational services were the top-performing sectors in terms of growth. Conversely, the goods-producing industries experienced a contraction of 0.3%, with manufacturing output declining by 1.3%. The manufacturing sector, heavily impacted by trade uncertainties, U.S. tariffs, and global economic conditions, saw a notable drop in motor vehicle and parts production due to a global semiconductor shortage.
Furthermore, the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sub-sector also experienced a decline of 1.1% in growth during the same period. The performance of these sectors underscores the challenges faced by Canada’s economy amid ongoing trade disputes and global market fluctuations.