After Iran and the U.S. initially claimed that the Strait of Hormuz had fully reopened on Friday, Iran later stated that the waterway had reverted to its previous state, overturning the previous assurance. This development adds another layer of uncertainty to the ongoing situation surrounding the critical strait, which has been severely impacted by the closure since the U.S. and Israel initiated strikes on Iran on February 28, leading to disruptions in global trade and a surge in oil prices.
Throughout the past seven weeks of conflict and fragile ceasefires, information regarding the strait has been limited, causing apprehension among shipping companies and crews navigating the waters on both sides of the channel. The movement of shipping through the strait and the broader implications of this uncertainty remain unclear.
The current restoration of marine traffic through the strait relies on precarious short-term ceasefires between Iran and the U.S. since April 7. However, discussions on ending the war have stalled, with Tehran still exerting control over the strait due to Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon not being included in the ceasefire agreement. Consequently, the U.S. has imposed a blockade on ships entering and leaving Iran in the Gulf of Oman since April 13.
Despite Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s declaration on Friday that the strait would open for commercial vessels during the ceasefire, the U.S. has maintained its naval blockade, indicating that it will only be lifted under broader conditions. Iran has warned of retaliatory measures if the blockade persists, prompting Ebrahim Azizi to announce on Saturday that the strait is reverting to its previous status, requiring Iranian authorization and toll payment for ships to pass through.
Amid this uncertainty, marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has remained stagnant, with approximately 20 vessels heading towards the strait on Friday but subsequently halting, as observed by Marine Traffic data. The presence of oil tankers and container ships on either side of the strait further indicates the limited movement through the channel, contrasting with the usual high volume of daily transits before the disruptions.
Safety concerns persist as the risk of navigating the strait remains elevated, exemplified by recent attacks on Indian-flagged vessels carrying crude oil. The presence of sea mines in the strait adds another layer of uncertainty, with conflicting reports on the removal of mines by Iran and the challenges of verifying their complete clearance.
Restoring traffic flow through the strait poses logistical challenges, compounded by the presence of over 1,000 vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf. The narrow channels and safety considerations necessitate a cautious approach to clearing the backlog, with estimates suggesting it could take more than two weeks under normal circumstances.
The prolonged closure of the strait has disrupted global oil supply chains, leading to prolonged recovery times for markets and consumers. While initial announcements of the strait’s reopening may temporarily alleviate oil prices, the long-term implications of the conflict and peace negotiations suggest a protracted process to restore energy supply and stabilize prices in the future.