Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful storms ever observed in the Caribbean, is scheduled to impact Jamaica early Tuesday following a rapid intensification phase – a weather event increasingly causing severe storms in the region. Initially a tropical storm on Saturday morning, Melissa’s wind speeds surged from 115 kilometers per hour to 225 kilometers per hour in less than a day by Sunday. By Monday morning, it escalated to a Category 5 hurricane, marking one of the swiftest intensifications on record in the Caribbean.
By Monday afternoon, the storm’s winds peaked at 281 kilometers per hour, making it the strongest storm globally in 2025, as per the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). The slow movement of Melissa heightens its threat level, as noted by Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science in the U.K. Deoras highlighted the increased risk of heavy rainfall due to the storm’s sluggish pace.
Melissa has already claimed six lives in the Caribbean, prompting Jamaica to brace for what could be its most severe hurricane disaster. Some areas in the country may experience up to a meter of rainfall, according to the NHC. Hurricane Beryl struck southern Jamaica last year, resulting in losses of approximately $200 million US, equivalent to 1.1% of the country’s GDP, also going through rapid intensification like Melissa.
Deoras attributed Melissa’s strength to two main factors: unusually high ocean surface temperatures in the Caribbean, surpassing normal levels by two to three degrees, and the reliance of tropical storms on the warm surface water for energy. The storm capitalized on these warm conditions, rapidly evolving during its gradual movement through the region over the weekend.
Global ocean warming is becoming more prevalent, influencing climate patterns worldwide. An extensive heatwave in the Pacific Ocean has led to atypical temperatures in North America this fall. In the previous year, average sea surface temperatures worldwide were recorded as the highest on record.
Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at the non-profit Climate Central, emphasized that the warm ocean temperatures were significantly more likely due to climate change, with the group’s analysis indicating a 16 km/h increase in Melissa’s peak wind speed, elevating potential damages by 50%. Winkley highlighted that four out of the season’s five hurricanes have undergone extreme rapid intensification, a phenomenon now occurring more frequently compared to previous decades.
References:
1. Climate change, warming oceans causing more rapid intensification in hurricanes
2. What is rapid intensification in hurricanes, and is it happening more often?
3. Melissa could be strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica in more than 170 years