Outside of Iran, there is an ongoing death toll due to an internet blackout masking the extent of the regime’s violent crackdown on anti-government protesters. Analysts believe this crackdown is the most severe since the establishment of the Islamic Republic nearly five decades ago.
NGOs, including the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, report that the number of confirmed protester deaths has surpassed 4,000 and continues to rise.
Iranian state television has acknowledged over 3,000 deaths, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei mentioned “several thousand” casualties, attributing blame to the United States.
An Iranian exile in the Netherlands assisting the Hiwa Foundation stated that the true toll will shock everyone once internet access is restored. Reports indicate that security forces are pursuing individuals using portable satellite dishes to access information.
Additionally, there are accounts of protesters being forcibly removed from hospitals and families being extorted for “bullet fees” to release the bodies of their loved ones.
Threat of executions persists: activist
The violent crackdown seems to have suppressed protests that initially erupted over Iran’s economic struggles and escalated into demands against the regime. International attention was diverted early on by U.S. President Donald Trump’s promises of support for protesters facing harm from Iranian security forces.
Although Trump praised Iran’s leadership for allegedly canceling planned executions of 800 political prisoners, the threat of American intervention remains a concern with the anticipated deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East.
Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, expressed confidence in Trump while emphasizing that Iranians oppose the regime out of their own volition rather than at the president’s behest.
Few signs of regime weakness in Iran
Despite discussions on the global order’s decline, there are minimal indications of internal fractures within Iran’s ruling establishment or its Revolutionary Guard Corps, tasked with safeguarding the Islamic Republic.
Experts suggest that contingency plans are in place to maintain stability within the regime, especially given the leadership’s response to past crises and potential threats, such as the recent heightened tensions in the region.
Iran’s Supreme Leader’s advanced age and historical purges of reform-minded individuals indicate a lack of significant internal challenges to the regime’s authority.
‘Iranian regime faces uncertain future’
The Iranian regime’s future remains precarious due to sanctions, economic woes, and internal dissent. With limited avenues for resolution, the regime grapples with managing widespread discontent without viable solutions.
Despite ongoing challenges, the regime persists. The trajectory of the protesters, who risk their lives for change, remains uncertain but hopeful, according to one activist with personal experience of loss in past demonstrations.
Without robust international intervention, the regime is likely to endure. Calls for countries to designate the IRGC as a terrorist entity and shut down Iranian embassies abroad reflect a growing sentiment that the current regime’s days are numbered.