New data from Environment and Climate Change Canada indicates that Canada’s binding climate target is likely unattainable. The department’s projections on greenhouse gas emissions play a crucial role in assessing the country’s progress towards its climate objectives.
According to the report’s findings, Canada is projected to fall significantly short of its 2030 climate goal, achieving only half of the targeted 40 to 45 percent reduction below 2005 levels. Current government initiatives are expected to result in a 21 percent reduction in emissions by the end of the decade. However, with the implementation of additional climate policies, the country could potentially achieve a 28 percent decrease.
This revelation follows a recent warning from a prominent climate think-tank in Canada, which also predicted that the country would miss its 2030 target. The Canadian Climate Institute previously estimated a 20 to 25 percent reduction in emissions below 2005 levels by 2030.
In response to the latest report, the institute emphasized the urgent need for immediate policy actions, highlighting that the country is significantly off track in meeting its climate objectives. Prime Minister Mark Carney had hinted at this development in year-end interviews, including discussions with CBC’s chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton.
The update from Environment Canada marks the first under Carney’s leadership, during which key elements of Canada’s climate plan have been altered. Changes include the removal of the consumer carbon tax, a pause on the electric vehicle mandate, support for additional LNG exports, and potential backing for a new bitumen pipeline to the Pacific coast.
Comparatively, the report indicates a regression from previous years. Under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, Canada was progressing towards a 34 percent reduction in emissions below 2005 levels.
The release of the report coincides with the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, a pivotal international accord aimed at limiting global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius. Even slight temperature increases can exacerbate extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and floods witnessed in Abbotsford, B.C., in recent days.