Ensemble Montréal Leader Soraya Martinez Ferrada leads in a recent poll conducted by research firm Segma for Radio-Canada, with just a few weeks remaining before the election. Martinez Ferrada holds 26% of the vote, eight percentage points ahead of Projet Montréal’s Luc Rabouin. The survey, which included about 1,000 Montreal residents polled between October 3 and 9, accounted for voters who were undecided, did not plan to vote, or declined to participate, making up the majority of respondents at 37%.
When excluding the undecided and non-voters, Martinez Ferrada’s lead extends to 42% of the vote, putting her 13 percentage points ahead of Rabouin, who stands at 29% in this scenario. The other mayoral candidates, including Gilbert Thibodeau of Action Montréal, Craig Sauvé of Transition Montréal, and Jean-François Kacou of Futur Montréal, did not reach the 10% mark in the poll.
Martinez Ferrada garnered significant support from voters aged 55 and above, with 32% of the vote in that demographic, while Rabouin received 15% support from the same age group. The poll also indicated that Martinez Ferrada had an advantage among English speakers and allophones compared to Rabouin, although the two leading candidates were close among francophone voters.
Regarding current satisfaction with Montreal’s mayor, the majority of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with Valérie Plante’s performance, with 55% indicating dissatisfaction and 33% stating they were extremely unsatisfied. This sentiment was prevalent among those leaning towards Ensemble Montréal but was also present across various age groups and backgrounds.
Infrastructure and homelessness emerged as the top priorities for Montreal voters, with 83% expressing dissatisfaction with the city’s road conditions. This dissatisfaction rate was notably higher compared to Laval and Longueuil. Additionally, respondents showed divided opinions on bike paths, with 49% satisfied with their development. Martinez Ferrada proposed an audit on bike paths within the first 100 days of her potential term, while Rabouin focused on enhancing access to Montreal’s Bixi bike-sharing service.
When asked to select their top issues for the upcoming election, 49% of respondents prioritized the city’s infrastructure, including roads, water facilities, sewers, and municipal buildings, while 47% highlighted managing homelessness. Public transit, security, the economy, and taxes were also among the key concerns for voters. The survey revealed that nearly half of respondents favored investing in social housing and community programs as a solution, with 82% considering sponge parks essential to prevent flooding.
Overall, the poll provided insights into the preferences and priorities of Montreal voters leading up to the upcoming election on November 2.